Spatial simulation of COVID-19 new cases development

  1. Isaac Chen
  2. F. Liu

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Abstract

The time dependent SIR model is extended to simulate infection across spatial boundaries. We used New Jersey data as an example to test the extended SIR model. Infection from neighboring counties are modelled by connectivity matrix where each pair of neighboring counties has an element in the connectivity matrix. The magnitude of this matrix element represents the degree to which the infected from one county can affect the susceptible in one of its neighboring counties. Simulated result from the extended spatial SIR model is compared with observed new COVID-19 cases measured in the 21 counties in New Jersey. The extended model has to solve 84 simulated functions simultaneously and the large number of parameters involved in the spatial SIR model are auto tuned using genetic algorithm.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.19.21263799: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.09.19.21263799v1 on medRxiv