What pushed Israel out of herd immunity? Modeling COVID-19 spread of Delta and Waning immunity

  1. Hilla De-Leon
  2. Dvir Aran

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Abstract

Following a successful vaccination campaign at the beginning of 2021 in Israel, where approximately 60% of the population were vaccinated with an mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, it seemed that Israel had crossed the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Nonetheless, Israel has seen a steady rise in COVID-19 morbidity since June 2021, reaching over 1,000 cases per million by August. This outbreak is attributed to several events that came together: the temporal decline of the vaccine’s effectiveness (VE); lower effectiveness of the vaccine against the current Delta (B.1.617.2) variant; highly infectiousness of Delta; and temporary halt of mandated NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) or any combination of the above. Using a novel spatial-dynamic model and recent aggregate data from Israel, we examine the extent of the impact of the Delta variant on morbidity and whether it can solely explain the outbreak. We conclude that both Delta infectiousness and waning immunity could have been able to push Israel below the HIT independently, and thus, to mitigate the outbreak effective NPIs are required. Our analysis cautions countries that once vaccines’ will wane a highly infectious spread is expected, and therefore, the expected decline in the vaccine’s effectiveness in those countries should be accompanied by another vaccination campaign and effective NPIs.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2021.09.12.21263451v2 on medRxiv
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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.09.12.21263451v1 on medRxiv