Effectiveness of Mass Vaccination in Brazil against Severe COVID-19 Cases
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Abstract
Background
Mass vaccination campaigns started in Brazil on January/2021 with CoronaVac followed by ChAdOx1 nCov-19, and BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines. Target populations initially included vulnerable groups such as people older than 80 years, with comorbidities, of indigenous origin, and healthcare workers. Younger age groups were gradually included.
Methods
A national cohort of 66.3 million records was compiled by linking registry-certified COVID-19 vaccination records from the Brazilian National Immunization Program with information on severe COVID-19 cases and deaths. Cases and deaths were aggregated by state and age group. Mixed-effects Poisson models were used to estimate the rate of severe cases and deaths among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, and the corresponding estimates of vaccine effectiveness by vaccine platform and age group. The study period is from mid-January to mid-July 2021.
Results
Estimates of vaccine effectiveness preventing deaths were highest at 97.9% (95% CrI: 93.5-99.8) among 20-39 years old with ChAdOx1 nCov-19, at 82.7% (95% CrI: 80.7-84.6) among 40-59 years old with CoronaVac, and at 89.9% (87.8--91.8) among 40-59 years old with partial immunization of BNT162b2. For all vaccines combined in the full regimen, the effectiveness preventing severe cases among individuals aged 80+ years old was 35.9% (95% CrI: 34.9-36.9) which is lower than that observed for individuals aged 60-79 years (61.0%, 95% CrI: 60.5-61.5).
Conclusion
Despite varying effectiveness estimates, Brazil’s population benefited from vaccination in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. Results, however, suggest significant vaccine-specific reductions in effectiveness by age, given by differences between age groups 60-79 years and over 80 years.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.10.21263084: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Study population: The National Immunization Program (NIP) provided an anonymized dataset containing individual-level data on vaccination and the occurrence of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI). National Immunization Programsuggested: (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, RRID:SCR_012976)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit …SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.10.21263084: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Study population: The National Immunization Program (NIP) provided an anonymized dataset containing individual-level data on vaccination and the occurrence of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI). National Immunization Programsuggested: (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, RRID:SCR_012976)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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