A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia
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Abstract
Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g. SARS, MERS, SADS and COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades.
Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this “hidden” spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ∼400,000 people (median: ∼50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.09.21263359: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources To inform our choice of distribution for each input variable, we gathered data from the literature on human-bat contacts, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and human SARS antibody duration (see the Supplemental Material for details). human SARSsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations of AOH maps70 include the potential inaccuracy of the IUCN species ranges71, habitat suitability assignments, and elevation limits. Additionally, the map of terrestrial …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.09.09.21263359: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
Antibodies Sentences Resources To inform our choice of distribution for each input variable, we gathered data from the literature on human-bat contacts, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and human SARS antibody duration (see the Supplemental Material for details). human SARSsuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Limitations of AOH maps70 include the potential inaccuracy of the IUCN species ranges71, habitat suitability assignments, and elevation limits. Additionally, the map of terrestrial habitat types we used in our analyses72,73 did not include caves, an important habitat type for many bat species. We used carbonate rock outcrop data as a proxy for cave distribution and this could be ground-truthed. Our analytical framework provides a strategy that has potential for improving preparedness for emerging diseases and pandemic risk. It has produced maps that can be used to conduct more cost-effective field surveys for viral discovery programs, and estimates of spillover rates that can guide targeted human surveillance to identify clusters of cases of a new CoV infection earlier and help prevent spread. It may also give vital guidance for efforts to identify the reservoir hosts of the SARS-CoV-2 progenitor, and the sites of COVID origins or first emergence34. Our analysis pipeline and framework are based on open-source code and can therefore serve as a resource to update and modify spillover risk maps and estimates as new data become available. These could include serological surveys in people using new diagnostic assays that can detect virus-specific neutralizing antibodies to differentiate COVID-19 variants, vaccine strains, and different clades of bat SARSr-CoVs74, or data from ethnographic surveys that identify changes in bat-to-human contact as habitats are increasingly modified o...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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