The efficiency of dynamic regional lockdown approach in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. Insights from the agent-based epidemiological model for Poland

  1. Jakub Zieliński
  2. Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka
  3. Jȩdrzej M. Nowosielski
  4. Rafał P. Bartczuk
  5. Karol Niedzielewski
  6. Marcin Semeniuk
  7. Łukasz Górski
  8. Jan Kisielewski
  9. Antoni Moszyński
  10. Maciej Radwan
  11. Artur Kaczorek
  12. Franciszek Rakowski

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Abstract

In this work properties of the dynamic regional lockdown approach to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic spread in Poland were investigated. In particular, an agent based model was used with the aim to indicate an optimal lockdown strategy, defined here as the one which minimizes mean lockdown time over regional unit provided health service is not overwhelmed. With this approach the lockdown extent was also considered by varying restrictions between complete regional school closure and/or significant social distancing in semi-public spaces. In result, a cooperative effect was discovered in the case when closure of schools was accompanied by severe restrictions of social contacts in semi-public spaces. Moreover, the regional lockdown approach implemented here on the level of counties (units of population around 100k) proofed to be successful, that is allowed to identify optimal entrance and release thresholds for lockdown. The authors believe that until significant portion of population is vaccinated such a strategy might be applied.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2021.09.06.21263031v2 on medRxiv
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    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

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    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.09.06.21263031v1 on medRxiv