Improving the reproduction number calculation by treating for daily variations of SARS-CoV-2 cases

  1. Harry Drewes
  2. Gotthold Fläschner
  3. Peter Möller

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Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic impacted the human life all over the globe, starting in the year of its emergence, 2019, and in the following years. A epidemiological key indicator that gained particular recognition in politics and decision making is the time-dependent reproduction number R t , which is commonly calculated by institutions responsible for disease control following a method presented by Cori et. al. Here, we propose an improved as well as an alternative method, which make the calculation more stable against oscillations arising from daily variations in testing. Both methods can be used without great statistical knowledge or effort. The methods provides a smoother result without increasing the time-lag, and provides an advantage particular in the timeframe of weeks, which might serve as a better ground for forecasts and the raising of alarms.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.15.21262071: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.15.21262071 on medRxiv