COVID-19 Projections for K12 Schools in Fall 2021: Significant Transmission without Interventions

  1. Yiwei Zhang
  2. Karl Johnson
  3. Zhuoting Yu
  4. Akane B. Fujimoto
  5. Kristen Hassmiller Lich
  6. Julie Ivy
  7. Pinar Keskinocak
  8. Maria Mayorga
  9. Julie L. Swann

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Abstract

Background

Millions of primary school students across the United States are about to return to in-person learning. Amidst circulation of the highly infectious Delta variant, there is danger that without the appropriate safety precautions, substantial amount of school-based spread of COVID-19 may occur.

Methods

We used an extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered computational model to estimate the number of new infections during 1 semester among a student population under different assumptions about mask usage, routine testing, and levels of incoming protection. Our analysis considers three levels of incoming protection (30%, 40%, or 50%; denoted as “low”, “mid”, or “high”). Universal mask usage decreases infectivity by 50%, and weekly testing may occur among 50% of the student population; positive tests prompt quarantine until recovery, with compliance contingent on symptom status.

Results

Without masking and testing, more than 75% of susceptible students become get infected within three months in all settings. With masking, this values decreases to 50% for “low” incoming protection settings (“mid”=35%, “high”=24%). Testing half the masked population (“testing”) further drops infections to 22% (16%, 13%).

Conclusion

Without interventions in place, the vast majority of susceptible students will become infected through the semester. Universal masking can reduce student infections by 26-78%, and biweekly testing along with masking reduces infections by another 50%. To prevent new infections in the community, limit school absences, and maintain in-person learning, interventions such as masking and testing must be implemented widely, especially among elementary school settings in which children are not yet eligible for the vaccine.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.10.21261726v2 on medRxiv
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.10.21261726: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.10.21261726v1 on medRxiv