Temporal considerations in the 2021 COVID-19 lockdown of Ho Chi Minh City

  1. Emmanuel L. C. VI M. Plan
  2. Huong Le Thi
  3. Duy Manh Le
  4. Haidang Phan

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Abstract

The success of Vietnam in controlling the spread of COVID-19 hinges on a timely implementation of its coherent strategy of containment and rapid tracing and testing efforts. The Vietnamese living in Mekong Delta are currently being besieged by the SARS-Cov-2 Delta variant as they undergo several and extended levels of lockdown. In this work we examine the temporal aspects of the lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City and predict the progress of the outbreak in terms of the total number of confirmed cases.

A compartmental model with containment is fit to data to estimate the rate of transmission in Ho Chi Minh City. The severity of the lockdown is estimated from publicly-available data on mobility and coupled to the rate of infection. Various scenarios on when to begin a lockdown and its duration are assessed. This report, dated 27 July 2021, supports a lockdown of at least 3 weeks and predicts that there could be half as many cases had the inevitable lockdown started a week earlier.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.04.21261332: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.04.21261332v1 on medRxiv