Estimation of the onset ratio and the number of asymptomatic patients of COVID-19 from the proportion of untraceable patients

  1. Takashi Odagaki

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Abstract

A simple method is devised to estimate the onset ratio of COVID-19 patients from the proportion of untraceable patients tested positive, which allows us to obtain the number of asymptomatic patients, the number of infectious patients and the effective reproduction number. The recent data in Tokyo indicate that there are about six to ten times as many infectious patients in the city as the daily confirmed new cases. It is shown that, besides social distancing and use of effective masks, a quarantine measure on non-symptomatic patients is critically important in controlling the pandemic.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.28.21261241: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.07.28.21261241 on medRxiv