Modelling infectious disease transmission potential as a function of human behaviour

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Abstract

Mathematical modelling is an important public health tool for aiding understanding the spread of respiratory infectious diseases, such as influenza or COVID-19, and for quantifying the effects of behavioural interventions. However, such models rarely explicitly appeals to theories of human behaviour to justify model assumptions. Here we propose a novel mathematical model of disease transmission via fomites (luggage trays) at airport security screening during an outbreak. Our model incorporates the self-protective behaviour of using hand sanitiser gel in line with the extended parallel processing model (EPPM) of behaviour.

We find that changing model assumptions of human behaviour in line with the EPPM gives qualitatively different results on the optimal placement of hand sanitiser gels within an airport compared to the model with naive behavioural assumptions. Specifically, that it is preferable to place hand sanitiser gels after luggage screening in most scenarios, however in situations where individuals perceive high threat and low efficacy this strategy may need to be reviewed. This model demonstrates how existing behavioural theories can be incorporated into mathematical models of infectious disease.

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  1. SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.16.21260521: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.


    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).


    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.


    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.


    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.


    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.


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