Timeline of SARS-CoV2 spread in Italy: results from an independent serological retesting
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Abstract
The massive emergence of COVID19 cases in the first phase of pandemic within an extremely short period of time suggest that an undetected earlier circulation of SARS-CoV-2 might have occurred, as documented by several papers in different countries, including a few that reported positive cases even earlier the first cases identified in Wuhan. Given the importance of this evidence, an independent evaluation was recommended. Here we report the results of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies blind retesting of blood samples collected in the prepandemic period in Italy, and in control samples collected one year before, by two independent centers. Results suggest the presence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in some samples collected in the prepandemic period, though the detection of IgM and/or IgG binding and neutralizing antibodies is strongly dependent on the different serological assays and thresholds employed, while being absent in control samples collected one year before. These findings highlight the importance of harmonizing serological assays for testing SARS-CoV-2 virus spreading and may contribute to a better understanding the future virus dynamics.
Article Summary Line
We report the results of an independent retesting of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in blood samples collected in prepandemic period in Italy and in matched samples collected one year before. The findings indicate the presence of IgM and/or IgG antibodies in selected samples of the prepandemic period only with different performance of serological assays used by the two centers. The results could give highlights on SARS-CoV-2 circulation in the pre-pandemic period and contribute to better predict future virus dynamic.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.14.21260491: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics Field Sample Permit: bioMILD, clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT02247453) collected from July 14, 2018 until February 23, 2019, matched by date of collection, sex, age, smoking habits.
IRB: The Institutional Review Board and Ethics Committee of Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori of Milan approved the study.
Consent: All eligible subjects provided written informed consent.Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources For the analysis and the graphic design the GraphPad Prism software (version 5.2) was adopted. GraphPad Prismsuggested: (GraphPad Prism, RRID:SCR_0027…SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.14.21260491: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics Field Sample Permit: bioMILD, clinicaltrials.gov ID: NCT02247453) collected from July 14, 2018 until February 23, 2019, matched by date of collection, sex, age, smoking habits.
IRB: The Institutional Review Board and Ethics Committee of Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori of Milan approved the study.
Consent: All eligible subjects provided written informed consent.Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources For the analysis and the graphic design the GraphPad Prism software (version 5.2) was adopted. GraphPad Prismsuggested: (GraphPad Prism, RRID:SCR_002798)Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:We acknowledge some limitations in this re-test study related to the limited sample size, the highly specific selection of screening participants (heavy smokers ≥ 30 pack years and ≥55 years old), possibly not representative of the general population, and the intrinsic experimental variability of the immunoenzymatic assays employed in the different laboratories. Moreover, we cannot exclude that other confounding conditions, such as preexisting immunity against other agents, might have contributed to the SARS-CoV-2 positivity in our assays. Nonetheless, cross reactivity towards the most common HCoVs was ruled out. As pointed out in the recent WHO report (www.who.int) and in other commentaries (1,2), studies from different countries suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was growing under the surface for some time before the first diagnosed case in Wuhan. Suggestive evidence from our previous published study (10) and conflicting results from the current retesting exercise, despite adding important signals in this direction, do not allow us to accept or discard this hypothesis. Indeed findings of these studies are only partially confirmed due to the heterogeneity of methods utilized and the risk of non-specific signals in serological assays. Despite that, the report underlines the importance of investigating these potential early events, to solve the still unanswered questions about the origin and timing of the current pandemic and may contribute to a better understanding of the future virus c...
Results from TrialIdentifier: We found the following clinical trial numbers in your paper:
Identifier Status Title NCT03654105 Active, not recruiting Screening and Multiple Intervention on Lung Epidemics NCT02247453 Active, not recruiting Plasma microRNA Profiling as First Line Screening Test for L… Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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