Modeling COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage towards herd-immunity in the Basque Country, Spain

  1. Nico Stollenwerk
  2. Javier Mar
  3. Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck
  4. Oliver Ibarrondo
  5. Carlo Estadilla
  6. Maíra Aguiar

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Abstract

Vaccines have measurable efficacies, obtained first from vaccine trials. However, vaccine efficacy is not a static measure upon licensing, and the long term population studies are very important to evaluate vaccine performance and impact. COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time and although the extent of sterilizing immunity is still under evaluation, the currently licensed vaccines are extremely effective against severe disease, with vaccine efficacy significantly higher after the full immunization schedule. We investigate the impact of vaccines which have different efficacies after first dose and after the second dose administration schedule, eventually considering different efficacies against severe disease as opposed to overall infection. As a proof of concept, we model the vaccine performance of hospitalization reduction at the momentary scenario of the Basque Country, Spain, with population in a mixed vaccination setting, giving insights into the population coverage needed to achieve herd immunity in the current vaccination context.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.07.12.21260390: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.07.12.21260390v1 on medRxiv