Infectiousness in omicron variant strain and bA.2 variant in Japan
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Abstract
Background
Omicron variant strain dominated since the beginning of 2022. Its infectivity was supposes to be higher than Delta variant strain or strains in past.
Object
We estimated prevalence of omicron variant strain, particularly bA.2 variant and COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness of the third dose in Japan as well as controlling for waning of second dose of vaccine, other mutated strains, the Olympic Games, and countermeasures.
Method
The effective reproduction number R( t ) was regressed on shares of omicron variant strain and bA.2 and vaccine coverage of the third dose, as well as along with data of temperature, humidity, mobility, share of the other mutated strains, and an Olympic Games and countermeasures. The study period was February, 2020 through February 21, 2022, as of March 15, 2022.
Results
Estimation results indicated that waning of the second dose vaccine e with 150 days prior was the most appropriate specification. Moreover, bA.2 of omicron variant strain has higher infectively than other variant strain or traditional strain.
Discussion
Because of data limitation since emerging bA.2, the estimated its infectively will change over time.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.20.21259209: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, as described above, effects of vaccine coverage and estimated herd immunity might be overestimated. Accumulation of the data will probably resolve this problem. Secondly, readers must be reminded when …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.20.21259209: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, as described above, effects of vaccine coverage and estimated herd immunity might be overestimated. Accumulation of the data will probably resolve this problem. Secondly, readers must be reminded when interpreting the obtained results that our obtained results do not indicate causality. This study demonstrated that some association exists among vaccine coverage and infectiousness. That finding does not necessarily mean that vaccine coverage reduces infectiousness: it might imply that lower infectiousness, for instance, an effective reproduction number being smaller than one, induces people to approach vaccination more enthusiastically.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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