Modelling, Simulations and Analysis of the First COVID-19 Epidemic in Shanghai

  1. Lequan Min

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Abstract

To date, over 178 million people on infected with COVID-19. It causes more 3.8 millions deaths. Based on a previous symptomatic-asymptomatic-recoverer-dead differential equation model (SARDDE) and the clinic data of the first COVID-19 epidemic in Shanghai, this paper determines the parameters of SARDDE. Numerical simulations of SARDDE describe well the outcomes of current symptomatic individuals, recovered symptomatic individuals, and died individuals, respectively. The numerical simulations suggest that both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals cause lesser asymptomatic spread than symptomatic spread; blocking rate of about 95.5% cannot prevent the spread of the COVID19 epidemic in Shanghai. The strict prevention and control strategies implemented by Shanghai government is not only very effective but also completely necessary. The numerical simulations suggest also that using the data from the beginning to the day after about 19 days at the turning point can estimate well the following outcomes of the COVID-19 academic. It is expected that the research can provide better understanding, explaining, and dominating for epidemic spreads, prevention and control measures.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.20.21259203: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.06.20.21259203v1 on medRxiv