The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their short-term interval prediction in spring 2021

  1. Avtandil G. Amiranashvili
  2. Ketevan R. Khazaradze
  3. Nino D. Japaridze

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Abstract

The lockdown introduced in Georgia on November 28, 2020 brought positive results. There are clearly positive tendencies in the spread of COVID-19 to February - first half of March 2021. However, in April-May 2021 there was a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation.

In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from March 01, 2021 to May 31, 2021 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of two-week forecasting of the values of C, D and I. The information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/ .

The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained.

Georgia’s ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in spring 2021 (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 156 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in May 2021 Georgia was in the 11 place on new infection cases and in the 14 place on Death.

A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia in spring 2021 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 25.3 % (22.05.2021), the smallest 1.42 % (15.03.2021).

Data about infection rate of the population of Georgia with Covid-19 according to traffic light system shown, that Georgia in April and May 2021 was in the red zone.

The statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 2171 (05.05.2021), R = 2038 (17.05.2021), D = 33 (22.05.2021), I = 8.05 % (04.05.2020). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 1258 (3 Decade of April 2021), R = 1283 (2 Decade of May 2021), D = 24 (2 Decade of May 2021), I = 6.54 % (1 Decade of May 2021).

It was found that as with September 2020 to February 2021 [8], in spring 2021 the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R and D have the form of a tenth order polynomial.

Mean values of speed of change of confirmed -V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months in the spring 2021 were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +37 cases/day (1 Decade of April 2021), V(R) = +36 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(D) = +0.6 cases/day (3 Decade of April 2021), V(I) = + 0.17 %/ day (2 and 3 decades of April 2021).

Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that the maximum effect of recovery is observed 9 and 13 days after infection, and deaths - after 12-17 days.

Comparison of real and calculated predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that two-week daily and mean two-week real values of C, D and I practically fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values for the specified time periods.

The comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.

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