Changes to household income in a Kenyan informal settlement during COVID-19

  1. Anna Tompsett
  2. Aaron Baum
  3. Vera Bukachi
  4. Pascal Kipkemboi
  5. Allan Ouko K’oyoo
  6. Ana Varela Varela
  7. Joseph Mulligan

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Abstract

More than a billion people live in densely-populated informal settlements worldwide. Crowded living conditions and limited resources may render these populations vulnerable to the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Representative and longitudinal survey data are needed to accurately measure impacts in these populations, but such data are scarce. Using satellite data and spatial sampling to ensure representativeness, we use longitudinal survey data on 1,033 households comprising 3,681 individuals collected pre- and post-pandemic to measure the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic households in six areas of the informal settlement of Kibera, Nairobi. The economic impacts are sizable and long-lasting. Household incomes declined at the start of the pandemic by 59% (95% CI: 50% to 69%) and remained 21% (95% CI: 13% to 28%) below the baseline level after six months. Respondents primarily attributed these declines in income to fewer labor market opportunities or lower demand for services, rather than the direct health impacts of the pandemic. The findings raise serious concerns about the welfare consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for residents of informal settlements.

Summary box

  • Residents of informal settlements may be highly vulnerable to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the longitudinal and representative survey data needed to measure impacts in these populations are scarce.

  • We use an innovative spatial sampling strategy to collect representative survey data from residents in six areas of the informal settlement of Kibera, Nairobi.

  • Relative to a pre-pandemic baseline, household incomes declined by 59% on average during the first three months of the pandemic. Six months later, incomes were still 21% below baseline.

  • Households attributed declines in income primarily to fewer labour market opportunities or lower demand for services (43% of respondents) rather than the direct health impacts of the pandemic (1%).

  • The declines in income we document raise concerns about the welfare of residents of informal settlements during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.15.21254693: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.06.15.21254693v1 on medRxiv