Targeted vaccination and the speed of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation

  1. Sylvain Gandon
  2. Sébastien Lion

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Abstract

The ongoing pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) raises an important question: who should we vaccinate first? Answering this question requires an analysis of both the short-term (epidemiological) and the long-term (evolutionary) consequences of targeted vaccination strategies. We analyze the speed of pathogen adaptation and the cumulative number of deaths in heterogeneous host populations to shed light on the effects of alternative vaccination strategies. This analysis shows that minimizing the speed of pathogen adaptation does not always minimize the number of deaths. This evaluation of both the epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of public health policies provides a practical tool to identify the best vaccination strategy.

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  1. Version published to 10.1073/pnas.2110666119
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.09.21258644: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No funding statement was detected.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.06.09.21258644v1 on medRxiv