Prediction of severe COVID-19 cases requiring intensive care in Osaka, Japan
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Abstract
Background
To avoid exhaustion of medical resources by COVID-19 care, policy-makers must predict care needs, specifically estimating the proportion of severe cases likely to require intensive care. In Osaka prefecture, Japan, the number of these severe cases exceeded the capacity of ICU units prepared for COVID-19 from mid-April, 2021.
Objective
This study used a statistical model to elucidate dynamics of severe cases in Osaka and validated the model through prospective testing.
Methods
The study extended from April 3, 2020 through April 26, 2021 in Osaka prefecture, Japan prefecture. We regressed the number of severe cases on the number of severe cases the day prior and the newly onset patients of more than 21 days prior.
Results
We selected the number of severe cases the day prior and the number of newly onset patients on 21 and 28 days prior as explanatory variables for explaining the number of severe cases based on the adjusted determinant coefficient. The adjusted coefficient of determination was greater than 0.995 and indicated good fit. Prospective out of sample three-week prediction forecast the peak date precisely, but the level was not t.
Discussion and Conclusion
A reason for the gap in the prospective prediction might be the emergence of variant strains.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.05.21258407: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Some limitations might have affected this study. First, we used dummy variables after June to ascertain the disease’s decreasing severity. However, we do not understand the reason why that decreasing severity occurred at that time. That diminished severity …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.05.21258407: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Ethics not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Some limitations might have affected this study. First, we used dummy variables after June to ascertain the disease’s decreasing severity. However, we do not understand the reason why that decreasing severity occurred at that time. That diminished severity might be attributable to COVID-19 virus mutation. Alternatively, treatment for patients might have improved since June. Younger and therefore milder patients accounted for a larger proportion of the patients than before June. Moreover, the disease severity can be expected to decrease if a new drug were developed. Alternatively, it might increase if some mutation were to strengthen its pathogenicity. Severity should be monitored to improve the fit of the statistical model. Secondly, definitions of severe cases differed among prefectures, even in Japan. Moreover, they probably varied among countries. It remains unknown whether the approach used for the present study is applicable to prefectures other than Osaka or to other countries with other definitions of severity. The robustness of usefulness of the statistical model must be verified for other areas in Japan and other countries. Thirdly, we might specifically examine only elderly patients or patients older than 50 as explanatory variables. Exploration of that point remains as a challenge for future research efforts. Fourthly, Osaka has experienced higher severity than Tokyo. In actuality, on April 26, 2021, Osaka had 306 severe cases, with only 55 severe cases reported am...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
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