Immune dynamics in a time of covid

  1. Troy Shinbrot

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Abstract

Motivated by curiosities of disease progression seen in the coronavirus pandemic, we analyze a minimalist predator-prey model for the immune system (predator) competing against a pathogen (prey). We find that the mathematical model alone accounts for numerous paradoxical behaviors observed in this and other infections. These include why an exponentially growing pathogen requires an exposure threshold to take hold, how chronic and recurrent infections can arise, and what can allow very sick patients to recover, while healthier patients succumb. We also examine the distinct dynamical roles that specific, “innate,” and nonspecific, “adaptive,” immunity play, and we describe mathematical effects of infection history on prognosis. Finally, we briefly discuss predictions for some of the effects of timing and strengths of antibiotics or immunomodulatory agents.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.06.01.446677: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.06.01.446677v1 on bioRxiv