Observational Study on 255 Mechanically Ventilated Covid Patients at the Beginning of the USA Pandemic

  1. Leon G. Smith
  2. Nicolas Mendoza
  3. David Dobesh
  4. Stephen M. Smith

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Abstract

Introduction

This observational study looked at 255 COVID19 patients who required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) during the first two months of the US pandemic. Through comprehensive, longitudinal evaluation and new consideration of all the data, we were able to better describe and understand factors affecting outcome after intubation.

Methods

All vital signs, laboratory values, and medication administrations (time, date, dose, and route) were collected and organized. Further, each patient’s prior medical records, including PBM data and available ECG, were reviewed by a physician. These data were incorporated into time-series database for statistical analysis.

Results

By discharge or Day 90, 78.2% of the cohort expired. The most common pre-existing conditions were hypertension, (63.5%), diabetes (59.2%) and obesity (50.4%). Age correlated with death. Comorbidities and clinical status on presentation were not predictive of outcome. Admission markers of inflammation were universally elevated (>96%). The cohort’s weight range was nearly 7-fold. Causal modeling establishes that weight-adjusted HCQ and AZM therapy improves survival by over 100%. QTc prolongation did not correlate with cumulative HCQ dose or HCQ serum levels.

Discussion

This detailed approach gives us better understanding of risk factors, prognostic indicators, and outcomes of Covid patients needing IMV. Few variables were related to outcome. By considering more factors and using new methods, we found that when increased doses of co-administered HCQ and AZM were associated with >100% increase in survival. Comparison of absolute with weight-adjusted cumulative doses proves administration ≥80 mg/kg of HCQ with > 1 gm AZM increases survival in IMV-requiring Covid patients by over 100%. According to our data, HCQ is not associated with prolongation. Studies, which reported QTc prolongation secondary to HCQ, need to be re-evaluated more stringently and with controls.

The weight ranges of Covid patient cohorts are substantially greater than those of most antibiotic RCTs. Future clinical trials need to consider the weight variance of hospitalized Covid patients and need to study therapeutics more thoughtfully.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.28.21258012: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    All data were analyzed using MedCalc, R software with survival, survminer, lme4, and ggplot2 packages.
    MedCalc
    suggested: (MedCalc, RRID:SCR_015044)
    ggplot2
    suggested: (ggplot2, RRID:SCR_014601)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.05.28.21258012v1 on medRxiv