Clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in South Africa
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
Low- and middle-income countries are implementing COVID-19 vaccination strategies in light of varying vaccine efficacies and costs, supply shortages, and resource constraints. Here, we use a microsimulation model to evaluate clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a COVID-19 vaccination program in South Africa. We varied vaccination coverage, pace, acceptance, effectiveness, and cost as well as epidemic dynamics. Providing vaccines to at least 40% of the population and prioritizing vaccine rollout prevented >9 million infections and >73,000 deaths and reduced costs due to fewer hospitalizations. Model results were most sensitive to assumptions about epidemic growth and prevalence of prior immunity to SARS-CoV-2, though the vaccination program still provided high value and decreased both deaths and health care costs across a wide range of assumptions. Vaccination program implementation factors, including prompt procurement, distribution, and rollout, are likely more influential than characteristics of the vaccine itself in maximizing public health benefits and economic efficiency.
Article activity feed
-
-
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.07.21256852: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:These results should be interpreted within the context of several limitations. We assumed that vaccine effectiveness was constant starting 14 days after administration and continuing throughout the 360-day simulation. Early data suggest that post-vaccination immunity lasts at least for months, with additional data accruing as the studies …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.07.21256852: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:These results should be interpreted within the context of several limitations. We assumed that vaccine effectiveness was constant starting 14 days after administration and continuing throughout the 360-day simulation. Early data suggest that post-vaccination immunity lasts at least for months, with additional data accruing as the studies continue their prolonged observation periods.1–3,45,46 There may be economies of scale such that the cost per person vaccinated decreases as the vaccine supply or vaccination pace increase and vaccination program resources are used more efficiently. Our modeled vaccination prioritization was based exclusively on age and not on employment type, comorbidity presence, or urban/rural heterogeneity in epidemiology or vaccination delivery. We did not include lifetime costs of health care beyond COVID-19 nor of sequelae among those who recover. We did not consider the impact of COVID-19 or vaccination on other health care programs (e.g., HIV and tuberculosis care) or on other economic sectors. As with all modeling exercises, our results are contingent on assumptions and input parameters. We selected COVID-19 clinical parameters based on the published literature. Where data were limited, lacking, or uncertain, we conducted sensitivity analyses. In summary, we found that a COVID-19 vaccination program would reduce infections and deaths and likely reduce overall health care costs in South Africa across a range of possible scenarios, even with conservat...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.
-