Population behavioural dynamics can mediate the persistence of emerging infectious diseases

  1. Kathyrn R Fair
  2. Vadim A Karatayev
  3. Madhur Anand
  4. Chris T Bauch

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Abstract

The critical community size (CCS) is the minimum closed population size in which a pathogen can persist indefinitely. Below this threshold, stochastic extinction eventually causes pathogen extinction. Here we use a simulation model to explore behaviour-mediated persistence: a novel mechanism by which the population response to the pathogen determines the CCS. We model severe coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in a population where both individuals and government authorities restrict transmission more strongly when SARS-CoV-2 case numbers are higher. This results in a coupled human-environment feedback between disease dynamics and population behaviour. In a parameter regime corresponding to a moderate population response, this feedback allows SARS-CoV-2 to avoid extinction in the trough of pandemic waves. The result is a very low CCS that allows long term pathogen persistence. Hence, an incomplete pandemic response represents a “sour spot” that not only ensures relatively high case incidence and unnecessarily long lockdown, but also promotes long-term persistence of the pathogen by reducing the CCS. Given the worldwide prevalence of small, isolated populations in which a pathogen with low CCS can persist, these results emphasize the need for a global approach to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.05.03.21256551: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Ethicsnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.05.03.21256551 on medRxiv