Quarantine, relaxation and mutation explaining the CoViD-19 epidemic in São Paulo State (Brazil)

  1. Hyun Mo Yang
  2. Luis Pedro Lombardi Junior
  3. Fabio Fernandes Morato Castro
  4. Ariana Campos Yang

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Abstract

Background

The continuous SARS-CoV-2 transmission in several countries could contribute to the mutations’ appearance. The circulation of more virulent variants may increase the number of severe CoViD-19 needing hospital care and fatalities hugely.

Methods

The partial quarantine in São Paulo State and further relaxation associated with the mutations are explained by a mathematical model based on the CoViD-19 natural history encompassing the age-dependent fatality. The model parameters were fitted considering the observed data from São Paulo State.

Results

The partial quarantine was explained by the less virulent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the relaxation alone could not explain the epidemic observed in São Paulo State. However, more virulent variants plus the transmission among isolated individuals explained the increased CoViD-19 fatalities.

Conclusions

The model described the CoViD-19 epidemic in São Paulo State by considering the partial quarantine, relaxation and mutations. The model provided a potential epidemiological scenario in the absence of mass vaccination.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.12.21255325: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.04.12.21255325 on medRxiv