Study of the effectiveness of partial quarantines applied to control the spread of the Covid-19 virus

  1. A. León

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Abstract

In Chile and in many countries of the world, partial quarantines have been used as part of the strategy to contain and control the Covid-19 virus. However, there is no certainty of its effectiveness and efficiency due to the lack of comparison with similar scenarios. In this work, we formulated a theoretical model of individual mobility, which also incorporates the infection dynamics of Covid-19. The model is based on a cellular automaton, which includes individuals moving through the represented spatial region and interacting according to the dynamics of Covid-19. In addition, we include mobile and partial health barriers, and different mobility regimes. Our results show that, partial quarantines would not be effective in general, to reduce the peak of active individuals infected with the virus, except for some proportions of territorial area involved in the division of the global region. Another interesting result of our research is that the passage restrictions in a sanitary barrier would not be relevant to the impact of the pandemic indicators in a sanitary quarantine regime. A possible explanation for the ineffectiveness of partial quarantines lies in the fact that the sanitary barriers are permeable to infected individuals and therefore when one of these individuals passes, an outbreak occurs in the virus-free zone that is independent of the original one.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.04.03.21254727: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.04.03.21254727 on medRxiv