Why COVID-19 is not so spread in Africa: How does Ivermectin affect it?

  1. Hisaya Tanioka
  2. Sayaka Tanioka
  3. Kimitaka Kaga

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Abstract

Background

Scientists have so far been unable to determine the reason for the low number of COVID-19 cases in Africa.

Objective

To evaluate the impact of ivermectin interventions for onchocerciasis on the morbidity, mortality, recovery, and fatality rates caused by COVID-19.

Method

A retrospective statistical analysis study of the impact of ivermectin against COVID-19 between the 31 onchocerciasis-endemic countries using the community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) and the non-endemic 22 countries in Africa. The morbidity, mortality, recovery rate, and fatality rate caused by COVID-19 were calculated from the WHO situation report in Africa. We investigated the onchocerciasis endemic 31 countries and the non-endemic 22 countries. Statistical comparisons used by the Welch test of them in the two groups were made.

Results

The morbidity and mortality were statistically significantly less in the 31 countries using CDTI. The recovery and fatality rates were not statistically significant difference. The average life expectancy was statistically significantly higher in the non-endemic countries.

Conclusions

The morbidity and mortality in the onchocerciasis endemic countries are lesser than those in the non-endemic ones. The community-directed onchocerciasis treatment with ivermectin is the most reasonable explanation for the decrease in morbidity and fatality rate in Africa. In areas where ivermectin is distributed to and used by the entire population, it leads to a significant reduction in mortality.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.26.21254377: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    Statistical Analysis: Statistical analysis was done by Microsoft Excel 2016 (
    Microsoft Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.26.21254377v1 on medRxiv