Long lockdowns and rainy days: Modeling the interactive roles of weather, behavior, and restrictions in COVID-19 transmission in the Netherlands
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Abstract
Extant research on the role of weather in COVID-19 has produced ambiguous results and much methodological debate. Following advice emerging from this methodological debate, we take a step further in modeling effects of weather on COVID-19 spread by including interactions between weather, behavior, baseline cases, and restrictions in our model. Our model was based on secondary infection, hospitalization, restriction, weather, and mobility data per day nested with safety region in the Netherlands. Our findings show significant but inconsistent interactions. The robust effects of weather on COVID-19 spread persisted over and above these interactions, highlighting the need to account for weather with nuance and caution in public policy, communication, and forecasting.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.16.21253684: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization Such a model is based on a linear modeling logic but allows the intercept to vary randomly between groups in the data, in this case the 25 safety regions of the Netherlands. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study …SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.16.21253684: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization Such a model is based on a linear modeling logic but allows the intercept to vary randomly between groups in the data, in this case the 25 safety regions of the Netherlands. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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