Optimal mobility restriction minimizing COVID-19 and excess suicide deaths in Japan
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
Background
Strict countermeasures for COVID-19 outbreak such as lockdowns and voluntary restrictions against going out might have reduced mortality because of COVID-19 directly, but might have raised suicide rates.
Object
We examined best policies for minimizing overall mortality attributable to COVID-19 directly, and excess mortality by suicide because of COVID-19.
Method
We regressed the estimated excess mortality attributable to suicide deaths against mobility-restrictive measures. Mortality attributable to COVID-19 directly was estimated through association between the effective reproduction number and mobility. We sought the best mobility restriction for minimizing overall deaths.
Results
Significant association was found between mobility and suicide, but the data were very few. Results showed the best mobility level as 65.5, which represents a 34.5% reduction in mobility from the normal level.
Discussion and Conclusion
An overly restrictive policy inducing lower than optimal mobility led to higher total mortality.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.28.21252644: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, our results reflect the situation and experience in Japan in 2020. Consequently, the results cannot be extended to other countries or subsequent years with no modification. International confirmation of our obtained result is anticipated as the next challenge. Second, although we strove to …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.28.21252644: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:The present study has some limitations. First, our results reflect the situation and experience in Japan in 2020. Consequently, the results cannot be extended to other countries or subsequent years with no modification. International confirmation of our obtained result is anticipated as the next challenge. Second, although we strove to ascertain a degree of mobility that minimizes the sums of deaths of these two types, if we seek to minimize the total loss of life years, the critical level will rise. In fact, death from COVID-19 occurs directly, and mainly among elderly people. However, suicide attributable to COVID-19 occurs even among younger adults or children as well as among elderly people. Therefore, the loss of life years per mortality case might be greater for suicide from COVID-19 than from COVID-19, directly. Considering differences in life years lost from these two types of death, then the critical level of mobility can be expected to rise. Third, the higher vaccine coverage hereinafter will raise the critical level of mobility minimizing the total incidence of death. To estimate it, information about vaccine efficacy and its duration in the community are expected to be necessary. Alternatively, because of mutation to higher pathogenicity, the critical level of mobility might be lower. In any case, for future decision making, the critical level of mobility must be re-evaluated according to prevailing circumstances.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
