Emergent effects of contact tracing robustly stabilize outbreaks
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Abstract
Covid-19 neither dissolved nor got out of control over a year. In many instances, the new daily cases exhibit an equilibrium at a meagre percentage of the population. Seemingly impossible due to the precise cancellation of positive and negative effects. Here, I propose models on real-world networks that capture the mysterious dynamics. I investigate the contact-tracing and related effects as possible causes. I differentiate the impact of contact-tracing into three—one direct and two emergent—effects: isolation of the documented patient’s direct infectees (descendants), isolation of non-descendant infectees, and temporary isolation of susceptible contacts. Contrary to expectation, isolation of descendants cannot stabilize an equilibrium; based on current data, the effect of the latter two are necessary and greater in effect overall. The reliance on emergent effects shows that even if contact-tracing is 100% efficient, its effect on the epidemic dynamics would be dependent. Moreover, This newly characterized dynamic claims that all outbreaks will eventually show such stable dynamics.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.25.21252445: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.25.21252445: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.
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