Non-pharmaceutical interventions and inoculation rate shape SARS-COV-2 vaccination campaign success
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Abstract
Nearly one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the first SARS-COV-2 vaccines received emergency use authorization and vaccination campaigns began. A number of factors can reduce the averted burden of cases and deaths due to vaccination. Here, we use a dynamic model, parametrized with Bayesian inference methods, to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccine administration and uptake rates on infections and deaths averted in the United States. We estimate that high compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions could avert more than 60% of infections and 70% of deaths during the period of vaccine administration, and that increasing the vaccination rate from 5 to 11 million people per week could increase the averted burden by more than one third. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing vaccine administration rates.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.22.21252240: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This result, however, has to be evaluated within the limitations of our approach: first, we only considered mortality and infection, whereas the pandemic has an impact also on Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), as well as occupational hazard and social disparity. Second, even …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.22.21252240: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This result, however, has to be evaluated within the limitations of our approach: first, we only considered mortality and infection, whereas the pandemic has an impact also on Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), as well as occupational hazard and social disparity. Second, even though we characterized healthcare workers as having more work contacts than other adults, we didn’t characterize those contacts as more likely to be with infected individuals. Therefore, the averted burden of infections with the current prioritization could be underestimated. In our simulations, we evaluated full vaccination with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, which both require two doses, as recommended by the FDA (17). In light of recent consideration of reducing the number of doses from 2 to 1 until adequate vaccine is available, we additionally examined how a single dose campaign with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 could modify the impact of vaccination. The one-dose campaign, which doubled the weekly vaccination rate but with 90% vaccine efficacy, averted up to 12% more infections and 15% more deaths across different NPI scenarios relative to the no-intervention scenario. However, caution is needed when interpreting model results for single dose administration, as it is unknown whether immunity would last as long as with two doses. Indeed, other vaccines (e.g. Tetanus and Hepatitis B vaccines) require additional doses administered within a short time in order to boost ...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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