Population Age-Ineligible for COVID-19 Vaccine in the United States: Implications for State, County, and Race/Ethnicity Vaccination Targets

  1. Elizabeth B. Pathak
  2. Janelle Menard
  3. Rebecca Garcia

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Abstract

Background

We examined the geographic and racial/ethnic distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine age-ineligible population (0-15 years old) in the U.S., and calculated the proportion of the age-eligible population that will need to be vaccinated in a given geo-demographic group in order to achieve either 60% or 75% vaccine coverage for that population as a whole.

Methods

US Census Bureau population estimates for 2019 were used to calculate the percent vaccine ineligible and related measures for counties, states, and the nation as a whole. Vaccination targets for the 30 largest counties by population were calculated. Study measures were calculated for racial/ethnic populations at the national (n=7) and state (n=6) levels.

Results

Percent of population ineligible for vaccine varied widely both geographically and by race/ethnicity. State values ranged from 15.8% in Vermont to 25.7% in Utah, while percent ineligible of the major racial/ethnic groups was 16.4% of non-Hispanic whites, 21.6% of non-Hispanic Blacks, and 27.5% of Hispanics. Achievement of total population vaccine coverage of at least 75% will require vaccinating more than 90% of the population aged 16 years and older in 29 out of 30 of the largest counties in the U.S.

Conclusions

The vaccine-ineligibility of most children for the next 1-2 years, coupled with reported pervasive vaccine hesitancy among adults, especially women and most minorities, means that achievement of adequate levels of vaccine coverage will be very difficult for many vulnerable geographic areas and for several racial/ethnic minority groups, particularly Hispanics, Blacks, and American Indians.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.11.21251562: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.02.11.21251562 on medRxiv