Note: Forecasting COVID-19 spread in Lebanon February 8-21,2021

  1. Omar El Deeb
  2. Maya Jalloul

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Abstract

This note implements an iterative method in order to predict the number of active cases with COVID-19, and consequently forecast the number of inpatients to hospitals and ICU in Lebanon according to different scenarios after end of the complete closure and curfew implemented between January 13 and February 7, 2021. The forecast predicts a decrease in the number of infections and people in need for hospitalization and ICU during the 2 weeks after the curfew (until February 21st), with varying extents depending on the subsequent commitment to mitigation measures, except for the case of a 2% absolute increase from the current rate of infection, which would bring back the numbers of cases back to a increasing trend.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.09.21251447: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.02.09.21251447 on medRxiv