Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES
With declining numbers of COVID-19 cases in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures were gradually being lifted. The risk of an increase in the number of cases, however, cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help to control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing.
METHODS
We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the State of São Paulo.
RESULTS
For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact tracing strategy is performed.
CONCLUSION
Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may be a potential alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for a massive testing strategy.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.05.21251222: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A limitation of this analysis is that we are assuming that the isolated symptomatic individuals are infected by SARS-CoV-2 and not by other virus that could cause similar symptoms. This limitation, however, would be less important in a scenario in which a substantial part of the respiratory infections are caused by SARS-CoV-2. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.05.21251222: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A limitation of this analysis is that we are assuming that the isolated symptomatic individuals are infected by SARS-CoV-2 and not by other virus that could cause similar symptoms. This limitation, however, would be less important in a scenario in which a substantial part of the respiratory infections are caused by SARS-CoV-2. Nevertheless, one could interpret the number of isolated symptomatic individuals as an effective number of individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 who should be isolated in order to observe the outcomes of the model.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from scite Reference Check: We found one citation with an erratum. We recommend checking the erratum to confirm that it does not impact the accuracy of your citation.
DOI Status Title 10.1038/s41591-020-1038-6 Has correction A dynamic COVID-19 immune signature includes associations wi… -
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