Assessment of Vaccination and Underreporting on COVID-19 Infections in Turkey Based On Effective Reproduction Number

  1. Tuğba Akman Yıldız
  2. Emek Köse
  3. Necibe Tuncer

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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a SEIR type COVID-19 model where the infected class is further divided into subclasses with individuals in intensive care (ICUs) and ventilation units. The model is validated with the symptomatic COVID-19 cases, deaths, and the number of patients in ICUs and ventilation units as reported by Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Health for the period March 11, 2020 through May 30, 2020 when the nationwide lockdown is in order. COVID-19 interventions in Turkey are incorporated into the model to detect the future trend of the outbreak accurately. We tested the effect of underreporting and we found that the peaks of the disease differ significantly depending on the rate of underreporting, however, the timing of the peaks remains constant.

The lockdown is lifted on June 1, and the model is modified to include a time dependent transmission rate which is linked to the effective reproduction number ℛ t through basic reproduction number ℛ 0 . The modified model captures the changing dynamics and peaks of the outbreak successfully. With the onset of vaccination on 13 January 2021, we augment the model with the vaccination class to investigate the impact of vaccination rate and efficacy. We observe that vaccination rate is a more critical parameter than the vaccine efficacy to eliminate the disease successfully.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2021.02.04.21251176v2 on medRxiv
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.04.21251176: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.02.04.21251176v1 on medRxiv