Evaluating the effects of re-opening plans on dynamics of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil 1
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Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization in early March 2020. In Brazil, São Paulo is the most affected state, comprising about 20% of the country’s cases. With no vaccine available to date, distancing measures have been taken to reduce virus transmission. To reduce the pandemic’s effect on the economy, the government of São Paulo has proposed a plan consisting of five phases of the gradual re-opening of activities. In this context, we have developed a mathematical model to simulate the gradual re-opening plan on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, in the city of São Paulo. The model shows that a precipitous reopening can cause a higher peak of the disease, which may compromise the local health system. Waiting for the reduction in the incidence of infected individuals for at least 15 days to phase transition is the most efficient strategy compared to the fixed-period scenario at each phase of the re-opening plan.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.14.21249809: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This model, as any other one, has limitations. Firstly, it does not account to spatial effects, which may have been addressed as an important characteristic, especially in the low-income communities of SP City [24]. Secondly, …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.14.21249809: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:This model, as any other one, has limitations. Firstly, it does not account to spatial effects, which may have been addressed as an important characteristic, especially in the low-income communities of SP City [24]. Secondly, we considered that each phase of the re-opening plan increases the transmission rate at the same amount, which may not be true given that some specific activities, such as workingout, may encompass a greater risk of infection. Moreover, we did not account to the health system’s carrying capacity, neither the distinction between asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, which could have a significant impact over the death projection and differ, even more, the tested scenarios. We emphasize that our goal in this work is not to make predictions, but study the dynamics behavior given some assumptions on the re-opening plan in SP. The main idea is that this study may contribute to authorities justify the current mitigation measures. Despite the results are somehow expected, we do consider that provide simple explanations and analysis for scientific divulgation and decision supporting (or justification) is important. Stochastic, and more predictive, models that take into account more variables, such as asymptomatic, symptomatic individuals, and people who need hospitalization (ward and ICU) merit further investigations.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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