COVID-19 dynamics in an Ohio prison

  1. Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh
  2. Sat Kartar Khalsa
  3. Eben Kenah
  4. Grzegorz A. Rempala
  5. Joseph H. Tien

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Abstract

Importance

Incarcerated individuals are a vulnerable population for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Understanding SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in prisons is crucial for curbing transmission both within correctional facilities and in the surrounding community.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to identify transmission scenarios that could underly rapid, widespread SARS-CoV-2 infection among inmates in Marion Correctional Institution (MCI).

Design

Publicly available data reported by the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Corrections (ODRC) was analyzed using mathematical and statistical models.

Setting

We consider SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics among MCI inmates prior to and including April 16, 2020.

Participants

This study uses de-identified, publicly available SARS-CoV-2 test result data for MCI inmates.

Exposures

Inmates at MCI were considered exposed to potential infection with SARS-CoV-2.

Main outcome and measures

Results from mass testing conducted on April 16, 2020 were analyzed together with time of first reported SARS-CoV-2 infection among MCI inmates.

Results

Rapid, widespread infection of MCI inmates was reported, with nearly 80% of inmates infected within three weeks of first reported inmate case. These data are consistent with i) a basic reproduction number greater than 14, together with a single initially infected inmate, ii) an initial super-spreading event resulting in several hundred initially infected inmates, together with a basic reproduction number of approximately three, and iii) earlier undetected circulation of virus among inmates prior to April.

Conclusions and relevance

Mass testing data are consistent with extreme transmissibility, super-spreading events, or undetected circulation of virus among inmates. All scenarios consistent with these data attest to the vulnerabilities of prisoners to COVID-19.

Key points

Question

To identify transmission characteristics consistent with timing and extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection among inmates in Marion Correctional Institution.

Findings

Mathematical and statistical modeling finds three scenarios that are consistent with the observed widespread infection in Marion Correctional Institution: i) very high transmissibility corresponding to a basic reproduction number in the double digits, ii) an initial super-spreading event involving exposure of several hundred inmates, iii) undetected circulation of virus prior to the first documented case among inmates.

Meaning

High transmissibility, super-spreading events, and challenges with disease surveillance all attest to the vulnerabilities of prison populations to SARS-CoV-2.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.14.21249782: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.01.14.21249782v1 on medRxiv