Modelling the effect of lockdown

  1. Hideto Kamei
  2. Akihiro Sato

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Abstract

1

This note models the effect of the lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19. We use SEIR type of model with a certain time lag between infection and becoming infectious. Firstly we compare the timing of the change of the coefficient of infection, growth rate of confirmed cases corresponds to the change of mobility index, and secondly we assume the change of the coefficient of infection, activity index β (analogous to R 0 ) and fit the parameter to reproduce the actual number of confirmed cases. Finally, we assume that the activity index β is proportional to the square of the mobility and fit the parameters. The curves in various cuontries fits reasonably well in any cases, but estimating β from various parameters (including temperature) remains as an important task.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.11.20248882: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.01.11.20248882 on medRxiv