An Augmented SEIR Model with Protective and Hospital Quarantine Dynamics for the Control of COVID-19 Spread

  1. G. Rohith

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Abstract

In this work, an attempt is made to analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak mathematically using a modified SEIR model with additional compartments and a nonlinear incidence rate with the help of bifurcation theory. Existence of a forward bifurcation point is presented by deriving conditions in terms of parameters for the existence of disease free and endemic equilibrium points. The significance of having two additional compartments, viz., protective and hospital quarantine compartments, is then illustrated via numerical simulations. From the analysis and results, it is observed that, by properly selecting transfer functions to place exposed and infected individuals in protective and hospital quarantine compartments, respectively, and with apt governmental action, it is possible to contain the COVID-19 spread effectively. Finally, the capability of the proposed model in predicting/representing the COVID-19 dynamics is presented by comparing with real-time data.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.01.08.21249467: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.01.08.21249467 on medRxiv