Analysis of the intensity of the COVID-19 epidemic in Berlin towards an universal prognostic relationship

The present work is a continuation and development of research on prediction and analysis of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic.

The proposed model adequately describes the development of the coronavirus epidemic with insufficient adherence to quarantine and social distancing. The transition from the absolute number of infected persons to their relative number per inhabitant of a settlement makes it possible to obtain universal calculation ratios.

In performing the calculations, the choice of the date of the beginning of the epidemic is of great importance. Recommendations are given on how to determine the date of the beginning of the epidemic based on the analysis of statistical data on the spread of the epidemic. The coefficient of virus transmission rate k included in the calculated prognostic relation depends on the population size and the type of virus strain in the settlement in question. A simple ratio for calculating this coefficient as a function of population size is proposed.

Control calculations performed using only a single empirical coefficient showed high accuracy. The calculated curves for Germany, Berlin, and its districts agree well with the corresponding statistical data. The correlation coefficients between the corresponding curves reach values of 0.93 to 0.97. The further development of the model should thus go in the direction of identifying causal links between the intensity of the epidemic and the main factors affecting this process. Some of these factors are related to the characteristics of the population’s behaviour and the infrastructure of cities. The increase in the incidence in areas with a large percentage of the population rooted in Islamic countries is one of the main factors determining the development of the epidemic in Berlin. In order to explain and clarify this conclusion, it is necessary to make further assumptions about the possible emergence of a new strain of coronavirus in Berlin and in Germany and, accordingly, about the possibility of new epidemic waves. A preliminary ratio for predicting the spread of the epidemic under conditions of simultaneous existence of both strains of coronavirus is given.

Simplicity of the proposed prognostic method and high accuracy of the results allow to recommend it as an effective tool for operative analysis of various measures aimed to control the spread of COVID-19 epidemic including mass vaccination of population.