Lockdown Effects on Sars-CoV-2 Transmission – The evidence from Northern Jutland
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Abstract
The exact impact of lockdowns and other NPIs on Sars-CoV-2 transmission remain a matter of debate as early models assumed 100% susceptible homogenously transmitting populations, an assumption known to overestimate counterfactual transmission, and since most real epidemiological data are subject to massive confounding variables. Here, we analyse the unique case-controlled epidemiological dataset arising from the selective lockdown of parts of Northern Denmark, but not others, as a consequence of the spread of mink-related mutations in November 2020. Our analysis shows that while infection levels decreased, they did so before lockdown was effective, and infection numbers also decreased in neighbour municipalities without mandates. Direct spill-over to neighbour municipalities or the simultaneous mass testing do not explain this. Instead, control of infection pockets possibly together with voluntary social behaviour was apparently effective before the mandate, explaining why the infection decline occurred before and in both the mandated and non-mandated areas. The data suggest that efficient infection surveillance and voluntary compliance make full lockdowns unnecessary at least in some circumstances.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A new multi-strategy study recently described well the diversity of impacts of NPIs relative to each other, of course with the limitations of confounders between country comparisons that prevail in all such analyses[3]. The …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:A new multi-strategy study recently described well the diversity of impacts of NPIs relative to each other, of course with the limitations of confounders between country comparisons that prevail in all such analyses[3]. The additional impact of a full lockdown on top of already mandated NPIs in Denmark at the time and voluntary social distancing and sanitation behaviour of informed citizens is arguably dependent on the infection levels and testing capacity so there is no simple answer to these questions, and we need to study the evidence further in the light of the weaknesses and strength of each approach.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
A new multi-strategy study recently described well the diversity of impacts of NPIs relative to each other, of course with the limitations of confounders between country comparisons that prevail in all such analyses[3]. The additional impact of a full lockdown on top of already mandated NPIs in Denmark at the time and voluntary social …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
A new multi-strategy study recently described well the diversity of impacts of NPIs relative to each other, of course with the limitations of confounders between country comparisons that prevail in all such analyses[3]. The additional impact of a full lockdown on top of already mandated NPIs in Denmark at the time and voluntary social distancing and sanitation behaviour of informed citizens is arguably dependent on the infection levels and testing capacity so there is no simple answer to these questions, and we need to study the evidence further in the light of the weaknesses and strength of each approach.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
About SciScore
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