Forecasting sub-national trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the UK
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Abstract
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has begun to at-risk populations around the world. It is currently unclear whether rejection of the vaccine will pose challenges for achieving herd/community immunity either through large-scale rejection or localised pockets. Here we predict uptake of the vaccine at unprecedented spatial resolution across the UK using a large-scale survey of over 17,000 individuals. Although the majority of the UK population would likely take the vaccine, there is substantial heterogeneity in uptake intent across the UK. Large urban areas, including London and North West England, females, Black or Black British ethnicities, and Polish-speakers are among the least accepting. This study helps identify areas and socio-demographic groups where vaccination levels may not reach those levels required for herd immunity. Identifying clusters of non-vaccinators is extremely important in the context of achieving herd immunity as vaccination “cold-spots” can amplify epidemic spread and disproportionately increase vaccination levels required for herd protection.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.17.20248382: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:(The author refers policymakers to the supplementary data file which reveals regions in which there is a strong association between ethnicity and uptake intent.) There are a number of study limitations to note. Firstly, this study maps intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine across the entire population and does not assess vaccine acceptance among at-risk groups or healthcare workers, who are likely to be the first groups offered a novel vaccine. …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.12.17.20248382: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your data.
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:(The author refers policymakers to the supplementary data file which reveals regions in which there is a strong association between ethnicity and uptake intent.) There are a number of study limitations to note. Firstly, this study maps intent to accept a COVID-19 vaccine across the entire population and does not assess vaccine acceptance among at-risk groups or healthcare workers, who are likely to be the first groups offered a novel vaccine. Secondly, the most recent census data used for probability reweighting (see Statistical analysis and appendix 2) is from 2011. Large changes in the demographic structure of the 174 regional populations could, therefore, result in biased estimates of vaccine intent. Finally, the study was conducted online with a sample of panellists who registered to take part in research surveys. While efforts have been made to ensure representativeness via MRP, there may be a bias among respondents who have access to (and can use) mobile phones or computers, through which the questionnaire would be completed. While this study provides a comprehensive snapshot of intent to accept a vaccine across the UK in September and October 2020, it predates both the Pfizer announcement that approval is being sought for use in the UK and the peak of the second wave of daily new coronavirus cases. Attitudes may change on short timescales. As the second wave passes, the UK public may have a decreased appreciation for the importance of the vaccine through either a decre...
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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