Positive rates predict death rates of Covid-19 locally and worldwide 13 days ahead

  1. Jürgen Mimkes
  2. Rainer Janssen

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Abstract

In the Covid-19-pandemic, the numbers of deceased do not consistently follow the number of new infections. The CFR mortality has declined in Germany from 5 % to 0.4 %. However, if we interpret the portion of positive tests as a positive rate, we find the positive rate and the numbers of deceased to run parallel with an offset of about 13 days. This has been observed worldwide in ten other countries and locally in Germany and North Rhine-Westphalia. In Germany the IFR mortality is about 29 per one million inhabitants, in the USA about 42, in Israel about 17, in the Netherlands 23, in Austria 27, in France 33, in Spain 36, in the UK 47 and Italy about 56 per million inhabitants. In Japan and South-Korea the mortality rate is only about 3 per million inhabitants, with an offset of about 25 days.

The daily positive ratio, which is reported by state health authorities, allows to estimate the number of deaths (and seriously ill people) about 13 days ahead. This gives local hospitals more time for detailed planning. The daily positive rate may be interpreted as a “thermometer” of the respective country. The positive rate gives a much better picture of the state of the pandemic and should be reported by the media in addition to infection numbers. In official guidelines a 7-day-positive-rate is a much better guideline than the 7-day-incidence.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.24.20237842: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.24.20237842 on medRxiv