Modeling the frequency and number of persons to test to detect and control COVID-19 outbreaks in congregate settings
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Abstract
Background
Congregate settings are at risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks. Diagnostic testing can be used as a tool in these settings to identify outbreaks and to control transmission.
Methods
We used transmission modeling to estimate the minimum number of persons to test and the optimal frequency to detect small outbreaks of COVID-19 in a congregate facility. We also estimated the frequency of testing needed to interrupt transmission within a facility.
Results
The number of people to test and frequency of testing needed depended on turnaround time, facility size, and test characteristics. Parameters are calculated for a variety of scenarios. In a facility of 100 people, 26 randomly selected individuals would need to be tested at least every 6 days to identify a true underlying prevalence of at least 5%, with test sensitivity of 85%, and greater than 95% outbreak detection sensitivity. Disease transmission could be interrupted with universal, facility-wide testing with rapid turnaround every three days.
Conclusions
Testing a subset of individuals in congregate settings can improve early detection of small outbreaks of COVID-19. Frequent universal diagnostic testing can be used to interrupt transmission within a facility, but its efficacy is reliant on rapid turnaround of results for isolation of infected individuals.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.20.391011: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One limitation of this analysis is that we applied general formulas that did not account for specific characteristics of individuals residing in and working in these congregate settings. Furthermore, uncertainties in the modeling parameters introduce imprecision in derived estimates. These values can provide starting points for …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.20.391011: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:One limitation of this analysis is that we applied general formulas that did not account for specific characteristics of individuals residing in and working in these congregate settings. Furthermore, uncertainties in the modeling parameters introduce imprecision in derived estimates. These values can provide starting points for consideration for testing strategies but should not be considered definitive. As additional data become available, parameter estimates can be refined and models can be fitted to the best available data. To reduce transmission, testing should always be used in combination with other prevention measures including social distancing, wearing masks and cloth face coverings, hand hygiene, cleaning and disinfection, screening, and isolation of individuals that are symptomatic or test positive, and quarantine of their close contacts. In coordination with these measures, testing strategies may reduce morbidity and mortality among individuals in congregate settings, prevent further spread into the community, and decrease strain on healthcare systems.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- No conflict of interest statement was detected. If there are no conflicts, we encourage authors to explicit state so.
- No funding statement was detected.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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