Demystifying the spreading of pandemics I: The fractal kinetics SI model quantifies the dynamics of COVID-19
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. The recently developed fractal kinetics susceptible-infected model was used for the analysis of the first COVID-19 wave data. The model was found to be in excellent agreement with the data. The “fractal” exponent of time is critical for the kinetics of the disease spreading since it captures the impact of the spatial related factors e.g. lockdowns, masks on the virus transmission. Estimates of the model parameters were derived from the epidemiological data of France, Greece, Italy and Spain. A universal law was established between the “fractal” exponent and the “apparent transmissibility constant” of the model. 173 countries were classified according to the fractal exponent and the asymptotic limit of the cumulative fraction of infected individuals.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.15.20232132: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.15.20232132: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: Please consider improving the rainbow (“jet”) colormap(s) used on page 12. At least one figure is not accessible to readers with colorblindness and/or is not true to the data, i.e. not perceptually uniform.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No funding statement was detected.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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