Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-October Update

  1. Ty Newell

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Abstract

Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires control of two human behaviors. A two-parameter, human behavior Covid-19 infection growth model continues to accurately predict total infections based on gross human interaction and local human interaction behaviors for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, NC). Since prediction model initiation on July 27, 2020, total infections for 8 states have grown by more than 200%. Only New York (23% infection growth) and Florida (189% infection growth) have grown less.

October displays combined impacts of increased social interactions as schools and businesses increase physical gatherings, coupled with climate dependent local interactions. The US, on average as of the end of October, has an Infection Parameter (IP) of 3.4 representing accelerating infection growth. Gross human interactions must be reduced by 15% or local interaction behavior (eg, face mask usage, ventilation) must be improved to reduce disease transmission efficiency by 27% in order to reach the linear infection growth boundary separating accelerating infection growth from decaying infection growth regions.

Eastern States (NY and NC) have had mild fall temperatures, which increases outdoor activities and increases building fresh air ventilation rates that suppress virus transmission efficiency. Mild temperatures in southern States (GA, FL and CA) during October have also helped suppress virus transmission. Midwest States experienced highly elevated infection rates due to combined effects of school openings coupled with a truncated fall season. WA stayed in the beneficial 70F (22C) to 50F (10C) zone through October, with minimal accelerated infection growth, but is now entering its heating season with average outdoor temperatures below 50F that are contributing to increased disease transmission efficiency.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.14.20231902: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

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    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.14.20231902v1 on medRxiv