Association between climate and new daily diagnoses of COVID-19

  1. Camilla Mattiuzzi
  2. Brandon M. Henry
  3. Fabian Sanchis-Gomar
  4. Giuseppe Lippi

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Abstract

Background

Although evidence is accumulating that climate conditions may positively or negatively influence the scale of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks, uncertainty remains concerning the real impact of climate factors on viral transmission. Methods. The number of new daily cases of COVID-19 diagnosed in Verona (Italy) was retrieved from the official website of Veneto Region, while information on daily weather parameters in the same area was downloaded from IlMeteo website, a renowned Italian technological company specialized in weather forecasts. The search period ranged between March 1 to November 11, 2020. The number of new daily COVID-19 cases and meteorological data in Verona were correlated using both univariate and multivariate analysis.

Results

The number of daily COVID-19 diagnoses in Verona was positively associated with the number of days in lockdown and humidity, and inversely correlated with mean, min and max temperature, mean wind speed and number of days with rainfall. Days of lockdown, mean air temperature, humidity, mean wind speed and number of days with rainfall remained significantly associated in multivariate analysis. The four weather parameters contributed to explaining 61% of variance in new daily COVID-19 diagnoses. Each 1% increase in air temperature, 1% decrease in humidity, 1 km/h increase in wind speed and day with rainfall were independently associated with 1.0%, 0.3%, 1.2% and 5.4% reduction in new COVID-19 daily diagnoses. A significant difference was observed in values of all-weather parameters recorded in Verona between days with <100 or ≥100 new daily COVID-19diagnoses.

Conclusions

Climate conditions may play an essential role in conditions of viral transmission, and influence the likelihood or course of local outbreaks. Preventive measures, testing policies and hospital preparedness should be reinforced during periods of higher meteorological risk and in local environments with adverse climate conditions.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.12.20230888: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board StatementConsent: This retrospective analysis was based on searches of unrestricted, publicly available databases, and thereby no informed consent or Ethical Committee approvals were required.
    IACUC: This retrospective analysis was based on searches of unrestricted, publicly available databases, and thereby no informed consent or Ethical Committee approvals were required.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    Software and Algorithms
    SentencesResources
    The number of new daily COVID-19 cases and meteorological data in Verona were imported into a Microsoft Excel file
    Microsoft Excel
    suggested: (Microsoft Excel, RRID:SCR_016137)

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a protocol registration statement.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.12.20230888v1 on medRxiv
  3. Version published to 10.21037/jhmhp-20-147