Aggressive COVID-19 “second wave” in Italy

  1. Hua Zheng
  2. Aldo Bonasera

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Abstract

A two-step model for the rise and decay of the COVID-19 is applied to the Fall resurgence of COVID-19 in Italy. Data starting from October 6, 2020 are compared to the same time interval in Italy starting from the complete lockdown on March 14, 2020. The model predicts more than 130,000 deceased by the end of the year 2020 if no effective measures are taken. If similar measures to the March ones are quickly adopted, the number of deceased may decrease to over 50,000. The situation is extremely serious and requires collaboration from everyone starting from wearing masks and other protections when social distancing is not feasible.

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  1. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.11.20229872v2 on medRxiv
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.11.20229872: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  3. Version published to 10.1101/2020.11.11.20229872v1 on medRxiv