Differing impacts of global and regional responses on SARS-CoV-2 transmission cluster dynamics
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Abstract
Although the global response to COVID-19 has not been entirely unified, the opportunity arises to assess the impact of regional public health interventions and to classify strategies according to their outcome. Analysis of genetic sequence data gathered over the course of the pandemic allows us to link the dynamics associated with networks of connected individuals with specific interventions. In this study, clusters of transmission were inferred from a phylogenetic tree representing the relationships of patient sequences sampled from December 30, 2019 to April 17, 2020. Metadata comprising sampling time and location were used to define the global behavior of transmission over this earlier sampling period, but also the involvement of individual regions in transmission cluster dynamics. Results demonstrate a positive impact of international travel restrictions and nationwide lockdowns on global cluster dynamics. However, residual, localized clusters displayed a wide range of estimated initial secondary infection rates, for which uniform public health interventions are unlikely to have sustainable effects. Our findings highlight the presence of so-called “super-spreaders”, with the propensity to infect a larger-than-average number of people, in countries, such as the USA, for which additional mitigation efforts targeting events surrounding this type of spread are urgently needed to curb further dissemination of SARS-CoV-2.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.06.370999: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Materials and Methods: Methodssuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.11.06.370999: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
Software and Algorithms Sentences Resources Materials and Methods: Methodssuggested: NoneResults from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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