A Two-Region SEIR COVID-19 Epidemic Model for the Island of Ireland

  1. James J. Grannell
  2. James R. Grannell

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Abstract

The island of Ireland consists of two countries, Ireland and Northern Ireland, which are separated by a land border. We develop a model for the COVID-19 epidemic which consists of two SEIR models, one for each country, coupled through border interaction terms. The model incorporates symptomatic and presymptomatic infectives, but not asymptomatic infectives, together with a simple isolation/quarantine model. The objective of the work is to explore how the two-region epidemic could evolve by examining selected regions of parameter space. In this context we examine the effect of the border status on evolution of the epidemic. We found that, even though the border interaction parameters are relatively small, the open border could significantly affect the course of the epidemic in some of the scenarios studied. We also looked for and found examples of sensitive dependence on several parameters.

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    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.31.20223727: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.10.31.20223727v1 on medRxiv