Economic Losses Associated with COVID-19 Deaths in the United States

  1. Troy Quast
  2. Ross Andel
  3. Sean Gregory
  4. Eric A. Storch

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Abstract

In addition to the overwhelming health effects of COVID-19, the disease has inflicted unprecedented economic damage. Vast resources have been directed at COVID-19 testing and health care while economic activity has been substantially curtailed due to disruptions resulting from individual choices and government policies. This study estimates the economic loss associated with COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. from February 1, 2020 through July 11, 2020. We use estimates of years of life lost that are based on the age and gender of decedents. Using a value of life year estimate of $66,759, we calculate economic losses of roughly $66 billion. The losses are concentrated in New York and New Jersey, which account for 17.5% of the total losses. Our analysis of per capita losses by state indicates that the highest values are located in the northeastern region of the country, while the values in the western states are relatively low. While economic losses associate with COVID-19 deaths is just one aspect of the pandemic, our estimates can provide context to the value of prevention and mitigation efforts.

JEL codes

I12, I18, J17

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.25.20219212: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variableThe authors created a model of COVID-19 deaths in the United Kingdom that used data from Italy and found that, adjusting for pre-existing morbidities, the average estimated YLLs for men fell from 14 to 13 and for women from 12 to 11.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:
    Our analysis has several limitations. Most notably, we only estimate losses associated with deaths. Costs due to other aspects such as hospitalizations, long-term health effects, and reductions in economic activity need to be included in an estimate of the overall cost of COVID-19. Our reduction in projected life expectancy by 25% is an approximate value. However, we believe it is a conservative approach that reflects the current understanding of COVID-19 mortality risk. We used a single VOLY estimate for the entire country which does not reflect potential variation in valuations across states. Further, if an estimate was available, it would be preferred to use an estimate based on surveys of U.S. rather than E.U. residents. Finally, our analysis period only represents the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. As the virus ebbs and flows throughout the country and additional lives are lost, both the total economic loss but also the ranking of jurisdictions will change.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.10.25.20219212v1 on medRxiv