Mathematical Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics with a Case Study of Nigeria and its Computer Simulation

  1. B. C. Agbata
  2. Ogala Emmanuel
  3. Tenuche Bashir
  4. Obeng-Denteh William

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Abstract

In this article, we formulated a mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease and we introduced quarantined and isolated compartments. The next generation matrix method was adopted to compute the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) in order to assess the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 deadly disease. Stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium is investigated based on the basic reproduction number and the result shows that it is locally and asymptotically stable for R 0 less than 1. Numerical calculation of the basic reproduction number revealed that R 0 < 1 which means that the disease can be eradicated from Nigeria. The study shows that isolation, quarantine and other government policies like social distancing and lockdown are the best approaches to control the pernicious nature of COVID-19 pandemic.

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  1. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2020.10.20.20216473: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

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  2. Version published to 10.1101/2020.10.20.20216473 on medRxiv